30 year Conventional Mortgage RatesThirty years conventional mortgage interest rates
Predictions: Refinancing and purchase of housing, 30-year conventional mortgage rates, home sales - July 2018
Home tyre home deliveries this year have developed like a slow-moving tyre as in three of the six month periods to date in 2018 home tyre deliveries have declined year on year. In the first nine month of the year, revenues fell by 2.23 per cent. However, supportive credit granting is increasing pricing, with the average for the first half of the year increasing by 5.4 per cent year-on-year.
Consequently, overall home buying credit volume (including new home sales) is projected to increase by 3.2 per cent in 2018 compared to 2017, according to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the MBA's July 2018 projections. Refinancing business is leaky, but much more pronounced due to increasing interest rates.
he following chart shows the current projections for 30-year fixed-rate conventional construction financing. After the first half of 2018, there is not too much variation in interest rates between 4.5 and 4.9 per cent for the year. However, this is not the next year's date of the Memorandum of Understanding. Fannie Mae is 4.6 per cent for 2019, while the MBA is in the high-end range with 5.3 per cent and Freddie Mac is still fairly close to midfield with 5.1 per cent.
For 2019, my guidance is in the 5.2 to 5.7 per cent area. Expectations of the refinancing value will continue to be the most volatile in comparison to the purchasing loan, with an annual decrease of 25.0 per cent in 2018 as against 2017 and an increase of 13.9 per cent in 2019 as against the previous year. The overall refinancing loan portfolio is likely to decrease from an annual mean of USD 637.1 billion in 2017 to USD 478.0 billion in 2018 and USD 411.5 billion in 2019.
In 2003, the best refinancing result to date was achieved with USD 2,598 trillion. The forecasted refinancing of loans this year will be the smallest since 2000, at 124.5 billion dollars. The forecasted purchasing credit amounts are shown in the next chart. Again, you realize that the rise in retail loans for 2018 is a feature of increasing asset cost and not accrued turning.
I expect inflation to slow as interest rates increase, as the present speed of inflation is not sustainable given incomes growing. In the US, the mean wage per hour has risen by only 2.7 per cent in the last 12 months and by 12.6 per cent in the last five years, while the mean wage has risen by 5.5 per cent and 29.4 per cent respectively in the same times.
The overall credit volume for housebuilding (purchase plus refinancing) is now likely to fall from USD 1.78 trillion in 2017 to USD 1.66 trillion in 2018 - the 6.9 per cent fall is mainly due to the decrease in refinancing. Fannie Freddie MBA's current apartment sale projections for July 2018 are shown in the following chart. I' ve revised my initial house sale guidance for 2018 from 1.96 per cent growth in 2018 to a zero point increase over 2017.
Leakage in inventory sale is so low that maximum speed is still possible, but the dashboard indicator just lit up.