What are Current 30 year Conventional Mortgage RatesHow are the current 30 years of conventional mortgage rates?
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Predictions: Refinancing of loans, purchase credits, 30-year conventional mortgage interest rates and home sales - May 2018
Scientists have a mystery when forecasting interest rates: give an interest or date, but never give both at the same moment because you will be mistaken. Luckily, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the MBA are updating their biannual and biannual projections for housing loans - both refinancing and purchasing operations - on a regular basis.
The driver of these credit prognoses is the anticipation of interest rates in the near term. There is no perfectly consistent 30-year conventional mortgage rate for the rest of 2018 and 2019, as the following chart shows. In 2019, Fannie is at 4.7 per cent, while the MBA at 5.4 per cent is in the high-end range and Freddie Mac at 5.1 per cent is fairly close to the centre.
For 2019, my guidance is in the mid 5.5 to 5.7 per cent area. Expectations of the refinancing volumes are the most likely to be subject to volatility in the future in comparison with the purchasing loan, with an annual decrease of 25.8 per cent in 2018 as against 2017 and an increase of 12.7 per cent in 2019 as against the previous year.
It is anticipated that the overall refinancing volume will decrease from an annual mean of US$ 642.1 billion in 2017 to US$ 476.4 billion in 2018 and US$ 415.7 billion in 2019. Consensual figures for the volume of purchasing credit are shown in the following chart. For 2018 and 2019, an increase of 3.6 per cent and 5.6 per cent, respectively, in purchasing loans is anticipated.
In the first quarter of 2019, Freddie Mac remained much more confident about home loans. The overall credit volume for housebuilding (purchase plus refinancing) is now likely to fall from USD 1.80 trillion in 2017 to USD 1.67 trillion in 2018 - the fall was exacerbated by the slump in refinancing. Fannie Freddie MBA's current May 2018 apartment sale guidance is shown in the following chart.
The current 1.96 per cent increase in 2018 is still the same as my current one. Whereas the recent hiccups in residential construction demand show a slowdown in anticipated credit expansion, increasing house prices still bolster a higher buying activity than before. If interest rates increase further, the refinancing value will decrease accordingly.